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IV Crush Setups

Implied volatility rises into earnings as traders hedge, then collapses ("crushes") after the print resolves uncertainty. Short-premium plays (sell strangles, iron condors, short straddles) profit when the actual move is smaller than implied. This page surfaces upcoming setups with rich IV and shows whether the market historically over- or underestimates the actual move.

Ideas tracked (50d) 0
Win rate
Avg return
Best idea
Worst idea
Past Events Analyzed
3
EM > Actual (overpriced)
100.0%
Avg Edge (EM − Actual)
+25.07%
Upcoming Setups
30

Current High-IV Setups

Upcoming earnings (next 30 days) ranked by implied volatility · sortable
Ticker Company Period Reports Days IV % Expected Move %
PMCB PharmaCyte Biotech, Inc. Jul/2026 Sep 21 13d 96% ±1336.1%
ITP IT Tech Packaging, Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 10 2d 69% ±915.2%
BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. Jun/2026 Sep 8 0d 63% ±875.8%
DXLG Destination XL Group, Inc. Jul/2026 Sep 9 1d 44% ±579.4%
OPTT Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. Jul/2026 Sep 21 13d 32% ±428.9%
MNY MoneyHero Limited Jun/2026 Sep 11 3d 28% ±373.6%
YRD Yiren Digital Ltd. Jun/2026 Sep 10 2d 24% ±311.2%
LITS Lite Strategy, Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 25 17d 20% ±268.2%
NNVC NanoViricides, Inc. Jun/2026 Oct 5 27d 19% ±252.3%
ISPR Ispire Technology Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 21 13d 12% ±158.5%
CLGN CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. Jun/2026 Sep 9 1d 9% ±148.3%
HYFT MindWalk Holdings Corp. Jul/2026 Sep 21 13d 9% ±114.8%
ELME Elme Communities Jun/2026 Sep 8 0d 6% ±113.1%
IVA Inventiva S.A. Jun/2026 Sep 25 17d 5% ±73.2%
CAN Canaan Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 8 0d 5% ±69.4%
HAIN The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 14 6d 5% ±66.1%
CULP Culp, Inc. Jul/2026 Sep 9 1d 5% ±59.9%
ANIX Anixa Biosciences, Inc. Jul/2026 Sep 9 1d 4% ±87.7%
DLNG Dynagas LNG Partners LP Jun/2026 Sep 8 0d 4% ±69.7%
EPM Evolution Petroleum Corporation, Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 15 7d 4% ±58.1%
CMCM Cheetah Mobile Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 11 3d 4% ±53.0%
VRA Vera Bradley, Inc. Jul/2026 Sep 15 7d 4% ±51.9%
NBP NovaBridge Biosciences Jun/2026 Sep 9 1d 4% ±70.7%
NTWK NetSol Technologies Inc. Jun/2026 Oct 5 27d 4% ±48.8%
GLOO Gloo Holdings, Inc. Jul/2026 Sep 9 1d 3% ±44.0%
NEOV NeoVolta Inc. Jun/2026 Oct 5 27d 3% ±41.7%
BNTC Benitec Biopharma Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 28 20d 3% ±40.5%
SFIX Stitch Fix, Inc. Jul/2026 Sep 23 15d 3% ±37.0%
LSAK Lesaka Technologies, Inc. Jun/2026 Sep 9 1d 3% ±36.5%
ODD ODDITY Tech Ltd. Jun/2026 Sep 9 1d 3% ±18.8%

Implied Move vs Actual — Historical Accuracy

Points below the diagonal = market overpriced the move (short-premium wins) · 3 events

Crush Stats by IV Bucket

Where the short-premium edge is strongest
IV Range# EventsAvg ExpectedAvg ActualAvg Edge% Overpriced
Low (<30%) 2 ±17.72% ±0.38% +17.34% 100.0%
Med (30-60%) 1 ±43.47% ±2.93% +40.54% 100.0%
🧪 Evidence Behind This Strategy Backtest incomplete
▸ Show methodology
Computed 2026-06-17 · Latency: Pre-earnings IV snapshot must precede the report date strictly. Realized move = close-before vs close-after the report.
Data ceiling: FULL IV-Crush backtest requires options chain history (strikes, bid/ask, OI) which arBtrage currently does not store. This panel shows ONLY the implied-vs-realized spread to indicate whether the edge exists in principle. Actual short-straddle P&L cannot be simulated until chain history is backfilled.
Backtest incomplete: No events with matched pre-earnings IV + price moves.

Method

For each past EarningsEvent: pull the most recent ATM IV snapshot BEFORE the report (no look-ahead), compute the actual 1-day realized move (pre-close → post-close), and the IV-implied 1-day move (atm_iv / sqrt(252)). Compare richness ratio = implied / realized. Bucket by IV magnitude.

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