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Congressional Coattail

Members of Congress disclose their stock trades within 30 days under the STOCK Act. Some consistently outperform — likely from access to information not yet public. This page simulates a buy-and-hold portfolio for each politician's disclosed buys over the last 365 days and ranks them by hypothetical return, then surfaces what the top performers are buying now.

Ideas tracked (50d) 3
Win rate 0.00
Avg return -0.15%
Best idea T +-0.1%
Worst idea ADI -0.2%

🎯 Top 3 Trade Ideas

Educational only — not investment advice · for analysis purposes only
AAPL Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Apple Inc.
Spot price: $321.00
Strike$320
ExpirationOct 16, 2026 (84d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (4 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
MU Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Micron Technology, Inc.
Spot price: $994.50
Strike$995
ExpirationOct 16, 2026 (84d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (2 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
MSFT Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Microsoft Corporation
Spot price: $381.73
Strike$380
ExpirationOct 16, 2026 (84d)
1 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (4 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
▸ Show past trade ideas (3 total · last 50 days) 3 resolved · 0.00 win · -0.15% avg
Date#TickerCategoryAction StrikeExpStatus EntryNow/FinalReturn Catalyst
Jun 17 1 T INSIDER Long ATM Call $22 Aug 21 OPEN $22.44 $22.43 -0.05% Tim Moore buy (2026-06-04, lag ?d)
Jun 17 2 ADI INSIDER Long ATM Call $415 Aug 21 OPEN $415.30 $414.45 -0.20% Josh Gottheimer buy (2026-06-02, lag 14d)
Jun 17 3 MU INSIDER Long ATM Call $1060 Aug 21 OPEN $1058.00 $1056.01 -0.19% Josh Gottheimer buy (2026-06-02, lag 12d)
Politicians Analyzed
28
Avg Wgt. Return (365d)
+9.64%
Total Simulated Invested
$27,703,541
Total Hypothetical P&L
$2,671,862

Top 15 Politicians by Return (365d)

Hypothetical buy-and-hold at transaction-date close · min 3 buys · min $10k disclosed value
# Politician Chamber Buys Tickers Sim. Invested Current Value P&L Return %
1 Tim Moore House 60 12 $1,110,055 $1,649,251 +$539,196 +48.57%
2 Jared Moskowitz House 56 23 $483,031 $647,011 +$163,980 +33.95%
3 Ed Case House 4 1 $32,002 $39,341 +$7,339 +22.93%
4 Scott Scott Franklin House 7 2 $105,005 $126,605 +$21,600 +20.57%
5 Dan Newhouse House 35 35 $280,018 $333,340 +$53,322 +19.04%
6 Lisa McClain House 250 200 $2,042,128 $2,348,300 +$306,172 +14.99%
7 Julie Johnson House 9 6 $72,005 $82,008 +$10,003 +13.89%
8 Robert E. Latta House 4 1 $39,003 $44,314 +$5,311 +13.62%
9 Byron Donalds House 37 17 $296,019 $335,781 +$39,763 +13.43%
10 Cleo Fields House 133 23 $6,417,116 $7,270,069 +$852,953 +13.29%
11 Marjorie Taylor Greene House 45 33 $409,026 $452,982 +$43,956 +10.75%
12 Gilbert Cisneros House 646 292 $5,943,841 $6,391,090 +$447,249 +7.52%
13 Jonathan Jackson House 27 18 $454,021 $484,921 +$30,900 +6.81%
14 Maria Elvira Salazar House 52 27 $640,040 $676,990 +$36,951 +5.77%
15 Julia Letlow House 45 43 $360,023 $378,487 +$18,464 +5.13%

Smart Money Picks

Tickers most-bought by the top 10 performers (last 180 days)
#Ticker# Top Politicians# Buys
1 AAPL 2 4
2 MU 2 2
3 MSFT 1 4
4 LGIH 1 4
5 SMPL 1 4
6 ASML 1 4
7 NVDA 1 3
8 COR 1 3
9 MSI 1 3
10 PANW 1 3
11 GD 1 3
12 PH 1 3
13 GE 1 3
14 NFLX 1 2
15 NOW 1 2
16 MNST 1 2
17 BBAI 1 2
18 MRVL 1 2
19 FMAO 1 2
20 GOOG 1 2

Recent Smart-Money Trades

Latest disclosures from top-10 performers (last 120 days)
FilerSideTickerAmountTraded
Dan Newhouse BUY AMCR $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY MU $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY HON $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL TMO $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL FTNT $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL AMD $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY UBER $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL UNH $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL INTU $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL NVDA $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL AMAT $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL FMC $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY FE $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL HONAV $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL PANW $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY MS $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL MGA $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL UPS $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY DUK $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL LLY $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY APH $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY ANET $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL MPC $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL HSY $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL ADBE $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL GOOGL $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY FIS $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL CSX $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY COST $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse SELL DE $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Dan Newhouse BUY ACN $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 10, 2026
Tim Moore SELL DASH $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 9, 2026
Byron Donalds BUY ZTS $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 9, 2026
Byron Donalds BUY ZTS $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 9, 2026
Byron Donalds SELL MPWR $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 5, 2026
Byron Donalds SELL MPWR $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 5, 2026
Byron Donalds SELL CDNS $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 5, 2026
Byron Donalds SELL CDNS $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 5, 2026
Cleo Fields BUY NVDA $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 26, 2026
Cleo Fields BUY NVDA $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 26, 2026

Bottom Performers

For reference only — these politicians' buys have underperformed
#PoliticianChamberBuysReturn %
1 Valerie Hoyle House 9 -14.45%
2 April McClain Delaney House 118 -3.87%
3 Virginia Foxx House 8 -2.83%
4 Josh Gottheimer House 41 -0.83%
5 Thomas H. Kean House 21 -0.70%
6 Lloyd Doggett House 16 -0.60%
7 Richard W. Allen House 7 -0.33%
8 August Lee Pfluger House 5 1.18%
9 John McGuire House 6 1.22%
10 Nancy Pelosi House 12 2.29%
🧪 Evidence Behind This Strategy Train baseline: +0.0231 vs Test: +0.0069 OOS 5/10 ✓
▸ Show methodology
Computed 2026-06-17 · Latency: Entry at disclosure-date close — STOCK Act allows up to 45-day lag between trade and disclosure, so trade-date entry is forbidden-knowledge. Hold 30 sessions.

Train top politicians (sorted by lift vs baseline)

Politiciannmeanhitlift
Tim Moore 36 +0.1283 0.86 +0.1052
Jefferson Shreve 25 +0.0850 0.84 +0.0618
Byron Donalds 12 +0.0673 0.58 +0.0441
Rob Bresnahan 40 +0.0649 0.70 +0.0418
Josh Gottheimer 27 +0.0644 0.78 +0.0412
Scott Scott Franklin 33 +0.0521 0.70 +0.0289
Cleo Fields 170 +0.0508 0.75 +0.0277
Richard Dean Dr McCormick 23 +0.0413 0.78 +0.0181
Ritchie John Torres 60 +0.0391 0.67 +0.0160
Julia Letlow 106 +0.0336 0.64 +0.0104
Julie Johnson 10 +0.0289 0.70 +0.0058
David J. Taylor 23 +0.0274 0.61 +0.0043
Dan Newhouse 14 +0.0273 0.36 +0.0042
Gilbert Cisneros 73 +0.0265 0.59 +0.0034
Jonathan Jackson 32 +0.0230 0.56 -0.0001
Marjorie Taylor Greene 53 +0.0188 0.64 -0.0044
Thomas H. Kean 14 +0.0163 0.64 -0.0068
Valerie Hoyle 181 +0.0079 0.50 -0.0153
Lisa McClain 657 +0.0046 0.50 -0.0185
April McClain Delaney 28 -0.0026 0.50 -0.0257
Jared Moskowitz 23 -0.0137 0.43 -0.0368
Out-of-sample carryover 6/10 train-top politicians appear in test; mean test lift +0.0288

Method

For each politician's disclosed BUY: enter at disclosure-date close, hold 30 sessions, measure return. Baseline = all-trades mean. Out-of-sample: train on first 60% of disclosures, test on last 40%. Check whether top-10 train politicians hold their edge in test.

n_buys_total = 3036 · median disclosure lag: 23.0d
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