Congressional Coattail
Members of Congress disclose their stock trades within 30 days under the STOCK Act. Some consistently outperform — likely from access to information not yet public. This page simulates a buy-and-hold portfolio for each politician's disclosed buys over the last 365 days and ranks them by hypothetical return, then surfaces what the top performers are buying now.
Ideas tracked (50d)
0
Win rate
—
Avg return
—
Best idea
—
Worst idea
—
🎯 Top 3 Trade Ideas
Educational only — not investment advice · for analysis purposes only
MSFT
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Microsoft Corporation
Spot price: $524.51
Strike$525
ExpirationJan 15, 2027 (82d)
3 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (7 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
AMAT
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Applied Materials, Inc.
Spot price: $377.24
Strike$375
ExpirationJan 15, 2027 (82d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (5 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
MNST
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Monster Beverage Corporation
Spot price: $46.19
Strike$45
ExpirationJan 15, 2027 (82d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (3 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
Top 15 Politicians by Return (365d)
Hypothetical buy-and-hold at transaction-date close · min 3 buys · min $10k disclosed value| # | Politician | Chamber | Buys | Tickers | Sim. Invested | Current Value | P&L | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert E. Latta | House | 4 | 1 | $39,003 | $50,468 | +$11,465 | +29.40% |
| 2 | Tim Moore | House | 37 | 9 | $688,034 | $853,813 | +$165,779 | +24.09% |
| 3 | Ed Case | House | 4 | 1 | $32,002 | $39,178 | +$7,176 | +22.42% |
| 4 | Josh Gottheimer | House | 44 | 33 | $2,354,025 | $2,875,463 | +$521,438 | +22.15% |
| 5 | John McGuire | House | 6 | 4 | $48,003 | $55,052 | +$7,049 | +14.69% |
| 6 | Byron Donalds | House | 18 | 8 | $144,009 | $163,673 | +$19,664 | +13.65% |
| 7 | Lisa McClain | House | 154 | 150 | $1,281,081 | $1,452,226 | +$171,145 | +13.36% |
| 8 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | 3 | 3 | $45,003 | $50,710 | +$5,707 | +12.68% |
| 9 | Richard Dean Dr McCormick | House | 39 | 25 | $312,020 | $346,318 | +$34,299 | +10.99% |
| 10 | Jared Moskowitz | House | 50 | 23 | $400,025 | $437,816 | +$37,791 | +9.45% |
| 11 | Jonathan Jackson | House | 23 | 19 | $492,019 | $536,218 | +$44,200 | +8.98% |
| 12 | August Lee Pfluger | House | 5 | 5 | $75,005 | $80,641 | +$5,636 | +7.51% |
| 13 | Julia Letlow | House | 23 | 23 | $184,012 | $197,155 | +$13,144 | +7.14% |
| 14 | David J. Taylor | House | 99 | 26 | $799,050 | $853,585 | +$54,535 | +6.83% |
| 15 | Gilbert Cisneros | House | 621 | 307 | $5,698,333 | $6,079,995 | +$381,662 | +6.70% |
Smart Money Picks
Tickers most-bought by the top 10 performers (last 180 days)Recent Smart-Money Trades
Latest disclosures from top-10 performers (last 120 days)| Filer | Side | Ticker | Amount | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | BUY | BRK.B | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | MCD | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | AMAT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 15, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | SELL | STX | $15,001 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | BUY | MSFT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | BUY | IBRX | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | BUY | IBRX | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | BUY | CAT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | BUY | CACI | $15,001 | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | BUY | NG | $1,001 - $15,000 | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | BUY | OLN | $15,001 | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Lisa McClain | BUY | RIG | $15,001 | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | BUY | MSFT | $250,001 | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | MSFT | $500,001 | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | SELL | MSFT | $250,001 | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | BUY | MSFT | $500,001 | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | BUY | RSG | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | BUY | AMAT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Josh Gottheimer | BUY | QSR | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | BUY | NFLX | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | BUY | NFLX | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | SELL | PH | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | SELL | HWM | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | SELL | HWM | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | SELL | PH | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Ed Case | BUY | AAPL | $1,001 - $15,000 | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Tim Moore | SELL | T | $50,001 | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | MDT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | COST | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | EMR | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | BUY | BRK.B | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | ICE | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | JNJ | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | LHX | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | MCD | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | MSFT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | NEE | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | PEP | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | PG | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | SELL | O | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
Bottom Performers
For reference only — these politicians' buys have underperformed| # | Politician | Chamber | Buys | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | April McClain Delaney | House | 150 | -7.60% |
| 2 | Nancy Pelosi | House | 18 | -5.17% |
| 3 | Rick Larsen | House | 11 | -3.78% |
| 4 | Richard W. Allen | House | 10 | -3.68% |
| 5 | Dan Newhouse | House | 21 | -1.69% |
| 6 | Virginia Foxx | House | 6 | 0.70% |
| 7 | Michael Rulli | House | 12 | 1.25% |
| 8 | Thomas H. Kean | House | 20 | 1.37% |
| 9 | Julie Johnson | House | 11 | 2.24% |
| 10 | Cleo Fields | House | 57 | 3.23% |
Evidence Behind This Strategy
Train baseline:
+0.0231
vs Test: +0.0069
OOS 5/10 ✓
▸ Show methodology
Train top politicians (sorted by lift vs baseline)
| Politician | n | mean | hit | lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Moore | 36 | +0.1283 | 0.86 | +0.1052 |
| Jefferson Shreve | 25 | +0.0850 | 0.84 | +0.0618 |
| Byron Donalds | 12 | +0.0673 | 0.58 | +0.0441 |
| Rob Bresnahan | 40 | +0.0649 | 0.70 | +0.0418 |
| Josh Gottheimer | 27 | +0.0644 | 0.78 | +0.0412 |
| Scott Scott Franklin | 33 | +0.0521 | 0.70 | +0.0289 |
| Cleo Fields | 170 | +0.0508 | 0.75 | +0.0277 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | 23 | +0.0413 | 0.78 | +0.0181 |
| Ritchie John Torres | 60 | +0.0391 | 0.67 | +0.0160 |
| Julia Letlow | 106 | +0.0336 | 0.64 | +0.0104 |
| Julie Johnson | 10 | +0.0289 | 0.70 | +0.0058 |
| David J. Taylor | 23 | +0.0274 | 0.61 | +0.0043 |
| Dan Newhouse | 14 | +0.0273 | 0.36 | +0.0042 |
| Gilbert Cisneros | 73 | +0.0265 | 0.59 | +0.0034 |
| Jonathan Jackson | 32 | +0.0230 | 0.56 | -0.0001 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 53 | +0.0188 | 0.64 | -0.0044 |
| Thomas H. Kean | 14 | +0.0163 | 0.64 | -0.0068 |
| Valerie Hoyle | 181 | +0.0079 | 0.50 | -0.0153 |
| Lisa McClain | 657 | +0.0046 | 0.50 | -0.0185 |
| April McClain Delaney | 28 | -0.0026 | 0.50 | -0.0257 |
| Jared Moskowitz | 23 | -0.0137 | 0.43 | -0.0368 |
Out-of-sample carryover
6/10 train-top politicians appear in test;
mean test lift +0.0288
Method
For each politician's disclosed BUY: enter at disclosure-date close, hold 30 sessions, measure return. Baseline = all-trades mean. Out-of-sample: train on first 60% of disclosures, test on last 40%. Check whether top-10 train politicians hold their edge in test.