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Congressional Coattail

Members of Congress disclose their stock trades within 30 days under the STOCK Act. Some consistently outperform — likely from access to information not yet public. This page simulates a buy-and-hold portfolio for each politician's disclosed buys over the last 365 days and ranks them by hypothetical return, then surfaces what the top performers are buying now.

Ideas tracked (50d) 0
Win rate
Avg return
Best idea
Worst idea

🎯 Top 3 Trade Ideas

Educational only — not investment advice · for analysis purposes only
MSFT Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Microsoft Corporation
Spot price: $493.74
Strike$495
ExpirationDec 18, 2026 (101d)
3 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (7 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
PANW Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
Spot price: $336.58
Strike$335
ExpirationDec 18, 2026 (101d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (5 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
MNST Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Monster Beverage Corporation
Spot price: $43.15
Strike$42.5
ExpirationDec 18, 2026 (101d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (5 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
Politicians Analyzed
29
Avg Wgt. Return (365d)
+11.93%
Total Simulated Invested
$27,354,465
Total Hypothetical P&L
$3,262,205

Top 15 Politicians by Return (365d)

Hypothetical buy-and-hold at transaction-date close · min 3 buys · min $10k disclosed value
# Politician Chamber Buys Tickers Sim. Invested Current Value P&L Return %
1 Scott Scott Franklin House 3 1 $66,002 $85,718 +$19,716 +29.87%
2 Robert E. Latta House 5 1 $47,003 $59,771 +$12,768 +27.16%
3 Jared Moskowitz House 69 27 $587,037 $744,805 +$157,768 +26.88%
4 Tim Moore House 44 10 $898,041 $1,111,251 +$213,210 +23.74%
5 Josh Gottheimer House 45 34 $1,628,025 $1,991,681 +$363,657 +22.34%
6 Lisa McClain House 185 158 $1,515,095 $1,804,257 +$289,162 +19.09%
7 Nancy Pelosi House 18 10 $8,350,018 $9,561,704 +$1,211,686 +14.51%
8 John McGuire House 6 4 $48,003 $53,855 +$5,852 +12.19%
9 Jonathan Jackson House 23 16 $415,018 $462,750 +$47,732 +11.50%
10 Ed Case House 4 1 $32,002 $35,627 +$3,625 +11.33%
11 Marjorie Taylor Greene House 31 27 $269,017 $294,514 +$25,497 +9.48%
12 Gilbert Cisneros House 650 298 $5,961,845 $6,517,934 +$556,090 +9.33%
13 Cleo Fields House 76 23 $2,761,060 $3,008,555 +$247,495 +8.96%
14 Maria Elvira Salazar House 56 29 $693,043 $744,148 +$51,105 +7.37%
15 Richard Dean Dr McCormick House 38 25 $304,019 $325,673 +$21,654 +7.12%

Smart Money Picks

Tickers most-bought by the top 10 performers (last 180 days)
#Ticker# Top Politicians# Buys
1 MSFT 3 7
2 PANW 2 5
3 MNST 2 5
4 AAPL 2 3
5 META 2 3
6 SPCX 2 2
7 ASML 1 4
8 AMAT 1 4
9 LGIH 1 4
10 BE 1 4
11 INTC 1 3
12 COR 1 3
13 GE 1 3
14 PH 1 3
15 GD 1 3
16 FMAO 1 3
17 AMD 1 3
18 MSI 1 3
19 HD 1 2
20 BP 1 2

Recent Smart-Money Trades

Latest disclosures from top-10 performers (last 120 days)
FilerSideTickerAmountTraded
Jonathan Jackson SELL VSAT $1,001 - $15,000 Aug 28, 2026
Ed Case BUY AAPL $1,001 - $15,000 Aug 13, 2026
Tim Moore SELL T $50,001 Aug 14, 2026
Josh Gottheimer BUY GOOGM $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 24, 2026
Josh Gottheimer BUY GOOGN $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 24, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL CCI $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 23, 2026
Josh Gottheimer BUY GOOGN $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 23, 2026
Josh Gottheimer BUY NICE $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 20, 2026
Josh Gottheimer BUY SAIL $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 20, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL GTLS $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 17, 2026
Josh Gottheimer BUY MNST $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 17, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL IBM $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 16, 2026
Josh Gottheimer BUY PANW $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 16, 2026
Josh Gottheimer BUY CRWD $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 15, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL IBM $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 15, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL FN $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 14, 2026
Jared Moskowitz BUY AMAT $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 13, 2026
Jared Moskowitz SELL STE $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 13, 2026
Jared Moskowitz SELL GWW $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 13, 2026
Nancy Pelosi BUY BE $500,001 Jul 28, 2026
Nancy Pelosi BUY BE $500,001 Jul 28, 2026
Nancy Pelosi BUY BE $1,000,001 Jul 24, 2026
Nancy Pelosi BUY INTC $250,001 Jul 24, 2026
Nancy Pelosi BUY INTC $500,001 Jul 24, 2026
Nancy Pelosi BUY BE $1,000,001 Jul 24, 2026
Robert E. Latta BUY FMAO $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 20, 2026
Tim Moore SELL DASH $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 9, 2026
John McGuire SELL BLK $1,001 - $15,000 Jul 7, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL NTDOY $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 17, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL INSM $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 10, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL NVZMY $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 1, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL NSRGY $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 1, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL ADC $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 1, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL BABA $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 1, 2026
Josh Gottheimer SELL BKNG $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 1, 2026
Jonathan Jackson BUY HLT $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 15, 2026
Jonathan Jackson SELL MCK $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 15, 2026
Jonathan Jackson BUY SPHR $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 15, 2026
Jared Moskowitz BUY AMAT $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 18, 2026
Jared Moskowitz BUY AMAT $1,001 - $15,000 Jun 18, 2026

Bottom Performers

For reference only — these politicians' buys have underperformed
#PoliticianChamberBuysReturn %
1 Rick Larsen House 12 -5.89%
2 April McClain Delaney House 141 -3.96%
3 Richard W. Allen House 8 -2.37%
4 Dan Newhouse House 21 -2.17%
5 Valerie Hoyle House 3 1.40%
6 Julie Johnson House 41 1.60%
7 Michael Rulli House 12 1.77%
8 Lloyd Doggett House 17 2.22%
9 August Lee Pfluger House 5 2.67%
10 Thomas H. Kean House 19 3.57%
🧪 Evidence Behind This Strategy Train baseline: +0.0231 vs Test: +0.0069 OOS 5/10 ✓
▸ Show methodology
Computed 2026-06-17 · Latency: Entry at disclosure-date close — STOCK Act allows up to 45-day lag between trade and disclosure, so trade-date entry is forbidden-knowledge. Hold 30 sessions.

Train top politicians (sorted by lift vs baseline)

Politiciannmeanhitlift
Tim Moore 36 +0.1283 0.86 +0.1052
Jefferson Shreve 25 +0.0850 0.84 +0.0618
Byron Donalds 12 +0.0673 0.58 +0.0441
Rob Bresnahan 40 +0.0649 0.70 +0.0418
Josh Gottheimer 27 +0.0644 0.78 +0.0412
Scott Scott Franklin 33 +0.0521 0.70 +0.0289
Cleo Fields 170 +0.0508 0.75 +0.0277
Richard Dean Dr McCormick 23 +0.0413 0.78 +0.0181
Ritchie John Torres 60 +0.0391 0.67 +0.0160
Julia Letlow 106 +0.0336 0.64 +0.0104
Julie Johnson 10 +0.0289 0.70 +0.0058
David J. Taylor 23 +0.0274 0.61 +0.0043
Dan Newhouse 14 +0.0273 0.36 +0.0042
Gilbert Cisneros 73 +0.0265 0.59 +0.0034
Jonathan Jackson 32 +0.0230 0.56 -0.0001
Marjorie Taylor Greene 53 +0.0188 0.64 -0.0044
Thomas H. Kean 14 +0.0163 0.64 -0.0068
Valerie Hoyle 181 +0.0079 0.50 -0.0153
Lisa McClain 657 +0.0046 0.50 -0.0185
April McClain Delaney 28 -0.0026 0.50 -0.0257
Jared Moskowitz 23 -0.0137 0.43 -0.0368
Out-of-sample carryover 6/10 train-top politicians appear in test; mean test lift +0.0288

Method

For each politician's disclosed BUY: enter at disclosure-date close, hold 30 sessions, measure return. Baseline = all-trades mean. Out-of-sample: train on first 60% of disclosures, test on last 40%. Check whether top-10 train politicians hold their edge in test.

n_buys_total = 3036 · median disclosure lag: 23.0d
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