Congressional Coattail
Members of Congress disclose their stock trades within 30 days under the STOCK Act. Some consistently outperform — likely from access to information not yet public. This page simulates a buy-and-hold portfolio for each politician's disclosed buys over the last 365 days and ranks them by hypothetical return, then surfaces what the top performers are buying now.
Ideas tracked (50d)
3
Win rate
0.00
Avg return
-0.15%
Best idea
T +-0.1%
Worst idea
ADI -0.2%
🎯 Top 3 Trade Ideas
Educational only — not investment advice · for analysis purposes only
AAPL
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Apple Inc.
Spot price: $321.00
Strike$320
ExpirationOct 16, 2026 (84d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (4 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
MU
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Micron Technology, Inc.
Spot price: $994.50
Strike$995
ExpirationOct 16, 2026 (84d)
2 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (2 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
MSFT
Long Shares (or 90-DTE Call)
Microsoft Corporation
Spot price: $381.73
Strike$380
ExpirationOct 16, 2026 (84d)
1 of top-10 politicians bought in last 180d (4 total trades). Politicians hold for months — shares for safety, ATM calls for leverage.
▸ Show past trade ideas (3 total · last 50 days) 3 resolved · 0.00 win · -0.15% avg
| Date | # | Ticker | Category | Action | Strike | Exp | Status | Entry | Now/Final | Return | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17 | 1 | T | INSIDER | Long ATM Call | $22 | Aug 21 | OPEN | $22.44 | $22.43 | -0.05% | Tim Moore buy (2026-06-04, lag ?d) |
| Jun 17 | 2 | ADI | INSIDER | Long ATM Call | $415 | Aug 21 | OPEN | $415.30 | $414.45 | -0.20% | Josh Gottheimer buy (2026-06-02, lag 14d) |
| Jun 17 | 3 | MU | INSIDER | Long ATM Call | $1060 | Aug 21 | OPEN | $1058.00 | $1056.01 | -0.19% | Josh Gottheimer buy (2026-06-02, lag 12d) |
Top 15 Politicians by Return (365d)
Hypothetical buy-and-hold at transaction-date close · min 3 buys · min $10k disclosed value| # | Politician | Chamber | Buys | Tickers | Sim. Invested | Current Value | P&L | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Moore | House | 60 | 12 | $1,110,055 | $1,649,251 | +$539,196 | +48.57% |
| 2 | Jared Moskowitz | House | 56 | 23 | $483,031 | $647,011 | +$163,980 | +33.95% |
| 3 | Ed Case | House | 4 | 1 | $32,002 | $39,341 | +$7,339 | +22.93% |
| 4 | Scott Scott Franklin | House | 7 | 2 | $105,005 | $126,605 | +$21,600 | +20.57% |
| 5 | Dan Newhouse | House | 35 | 35 | $280,018 | $333,340 | +$53,322 | +19.04% |
| 6 | Lisa McClain | House | 250 | 200 | $2,042,128 | $2,348,300 | +$306,172 | +14.99% |
| 7 | Julie Johnson | House | 9 | 6 | $72,005 | $82,008 | +$10,003 | +13.89% |
| 8 | Robert E. Latta | House | 4 | 1 | $39,003 | $44,314 | +$5,311 | +13.62% |
| 9 | Byron Donalds | House | 37 | 17 | $296,019 | $335,781 | +$39,763 | +13.43% |
| 10 | Cleo Fields | House | 133 | 23 | $6,417,116 | $7,270,069 | +$852,953 | +13.29% |
| 11 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | 45 | 33 | $409,026 | $452,982 | +$43,956 | +10.75% |
| 12 | Gilbert Cisneros | House | 646 | 292 | $5,943,841 | $6,391,090 | +$447,249 | +7.52% |
| 13 | Jonathan Jackson | House | 27 | 18 | $454,021 | $484,921 | +$30,900 | +6.81% |
| 14 | Maria Elvira Salazar | House | 52 | 27 | $640,040 | $676,990 | +$36,951 | +5.77% |
| 15 | Julia Letlow | House | 45 | 43 | $360,023 | $378,487 | +$18,464 | +5.13% |
Smart Money Picks
Tickers most-bought by the top 10 performers (last 180 days)Recent Smart-Money Trades
Latest disclosures from top-10 performers (last 120 days)| Filer | Side | Ticker | Amount | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | AMCR | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | MU | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | HON | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | TMO | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | FTNT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | AMD | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | UBER | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | UNH | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | INTU | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | NVDA | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | AMAT | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | FMC | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | FE | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | HONAV | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | PANW | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | MS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | MGA | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | UPS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | DUK | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | LLY | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | APH | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | ANET | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | MPC | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | HSY | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | ADBE | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | GOOGL | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | FIS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | CSX | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | COST | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | SELL | DE | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Dan Newhouse | BUY | ACN | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Tim Moore | SELL | DASH | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | BUY | ZTS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | BUY | ZTS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | SELL | MPWR | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | SELL | MPWR | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | SELL | CDNS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Byron Donalds | SELL | CDNS | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Cleo Fields | BUY | NVDA | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Cleo Fields | BUY | NVDA | $1,001 - $15,000 | Jun 26, 2026 |
Bottom Performers
For reference only — these politicians' buys have underperformed| # | Politician | Chamber | Buys | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valerie Hoyle | House | 9 | -14.45% |
| 2 | April McClain Delaney | House | 118 | -3.87% |
| 3 | Virginia Foxx | House | 8 | -2.83% |
| 4 | Josh Gottheimer | House | 41 | -0.83% |
| 5 | Thomas H. Kean | House | 21 | -0.70% |
| 6 | Lloyd Doggett | House | 16 | -0.60% |
| 7 | Richard W. Allen | House | 7 | -0.33% |
| 8 | August Lee Pfluger | House | 5 | 1.18% |
| 9 | John McGuire | House | 6 | 1.22% |
| 10 | Nancy Pelosi | House | 12 | 2.29% |
Evidence Behind This Strategy
Train baseline:
+0.0231
vs Test: +0.0069
OOS 5/10 ✓
▸ Show methodology
Train top politicians (sorted by lift vs baseline)
| Politician | n | mean | hit | lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Moore | 36 | +0.1283 | 0.86 | +0.1052 |
| Jefferson Shreve | 25 | +0.0850 | 0.84 | +0.0618 |
| Byron Donalds | 12 | +0.0673 | 0.58 | +0.0441 |
| Rob Bresnahan | 40 | +0.0649 | 0.70 | +0.0418 |
| Josh Gottheimer | 27 | +0.0644 | 0.78 | +0.0412 |
| Scott Scott Franklin | 33 | +0.0521 | 0.70 | +0.0289 |
| Cleo Fields | 170 | +0.0508 | 0.75 | +0.0277 |
| Richard Dean Dr McCormick | 23 | +0.0413 | 0.78 | +0.0181 |
| Ritchie John Torres | 60 | +0.0391 | 0.67 | +0.0160 |
| Julia Letlow | 106 | +0.0336 | 0.64 | +0.0104 |
| Julie Johnson | 10 | +0.0289 | 0.70 | +0.0058 |
| David J. Taylor | 23 | +0.0274 | 0.61 | +0.0043 |
| Dan Newhouse | 14 | +0.0273 | 0.36 | +0.0042 |
| Gilbert Cisneros | 73 | +0.0265 | 0.59 | +0.0034 |
| Jonathan Jackson | 32 | +0.0230 | 0.56 | -0.0001 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 53 | +0.0188 | 0.64 | -0.0044 |
| Thomas H. Kean | 14 | +0.0163 | 0.64 | -0.0068 |
| Valerie Hoyle | 181 | +0.0079 | 0.50 | -0.0153 |
| Lisa McClain | 657 | +0.0046 | 0.50 | -0.0185 |
| April McClain Delaney | 28 | -0.0026 | 0.50 | -0.0257 |
| Jared Moskowitz | 23 | -0.0137 | 0.43 | -0.0368 |
Out-of-sample carryover
6/10 train-top politicians appear in test;
mean test lift +0.0288
Method
For each politician's disclosed BUY: enter at disclosure-date close, hold 30 sessions, measure return. Baseline = all-trades mean. Out-of-sample: train on first 60% of disclosures, test on last 40%. Check whether top-10 train politicians hold their edge in test.