Squeeze Radar
In 2019, Roaring Kitty bought GameStop when two things were true at once: the stock traded below the cash on its balance sheet, and short sellers held a huge slice of the shares. He bought the longest-dated January calls on the board and waited. This page rebuilds that screen from public SEC, FINRA and exchange data, runs it across the market every night, and tests the popular spike theories (T+35, fails-to-deliver, OPEX) against each stock's own history. The dates to watch are at the bottom.
- Cheap vs. cashPrice ≤ 1.5× cash per share from the latest filed 10-Q/10-K. GME was ~0.3× in June 2019.
- Crowded shortShort interest ≥ 40% of shares (GME: 39% then, 100%+ by 2020).
- Wait for a flushThe 2019 entry came three days after a −35% earnings drop.
- Buy timeLongest January call listed, strike ≈ 1.6× spot. The expiry is about time, not a predicted date.
- Hold for catalystsNew management, buybacks, index/options flows. Roll up if it works.
Deep dive
GME + today's top 3 · pick oneGME price$24.702026-10-02
Price ÷ cash2.57×needs ≤ 1.5× (≈ $14.43)
Short interest7.7%of shares · 4.3 days to cover · 2026-09-15
Setup nowoffwas on in the past
LEAP if it were on$40.0C2028-01-21 · model $1.11
🔵 GME warrants ($32, exp Oct 30 2026)
1 warrant per 10 shares (record date Oct 3 2025) · announcementDays left26expires 2026-10-30, 5pm ET
Move needed+30%to reach $32
Warrant price$2.19break-even $34.19
Odds the warrant implies21%at 168% implied volatility
Odds from normal volatility1.0%at 42% (60-day realised)
If exercised+11.7%more shares · $1.9B to the company
Why it matters. Warrants work like listed call options. If the stock gets near the strike before expiry, whoever sold or hedges them has to buy more stock, and that buying can feed a squeeze. Above the strike, holders exercise and new shares are issued, which adds supply. When the warrant's implied odds sit far above the odds from normal volatility, buyers are paying up for a big move. This is rated 🔵 because a one-off event has no history to test.
Implied odds, day by day
our own nightly snapshotsGME: when the setup was on
weekly close, log scale · green band = setup on · orange = days up ≥15%Price ÷ cash per share
setup needs ≤ 1.5 (dashed)Short interest, % of shares
setup needs ≥ 40% (dashed)What happened next
median forward return from each day in the group| Condition | Days | 6 months | 12 months | 18 months | 18-mo win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both conditions (setup on) | 396 | +39% | +1,228% | +2,855% | 98% (n=396) |
| Cheap vs cash only | 239 | -9% | -45% | +32% | 66% (n=50) |
| Heavily shorted only | 99 | +7% | -52% | -56% | 36% (n=99) |
| All days with data | 2196 | -6% | -13% | -2% | 49% (n=1818) |
Read carefully. Setup-on days are usually one or two continuous stretches, so a big median is a few outcomes counted many times. Either condition on its own tends to do poorly.
LEAP replay
first setup-on day each month · January call ~19–31 months out · strike 1.6× · Black-Scholes at trailing 1-yr vol (modelled, not quoted)| Entry | Spot | Strike | Expiry | Premium | Hold to expiry | Peak value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-11 | $3.18 | $5.08 | 2020-01-17 | $0.18 | 0.0× | 3.4× |
| 2019-04-24 | $2.25 | $3.60 | 2021-01-15 | $0.37 | 14.1× | 17.0× |
| 2019-05-01 | $2.13 | $3.40 | 2021-01-15 | $0.35 | 15.6× | 18.8× |
| 2019-06-10 | $1.36 | $2.18 | 2021-01-15 | $0.31 | 21.7× | 25.3× |
| 2019-07-01 | $1.34 | $2.14 | 2021-01-15 | $0.29 | 23.4× | 27.2× |
| 2019-08-01 | $0.96 | $1.54 | 2021-01-15 | $0.20 | 37.0× | 42.6× |
| 2019-09-03 | $0.95 | $1.52 | 2021-01-15 | $0.19 | 38.2× | 44.0× |
| 2019-10-01 | $1.40 | $2.23 | 2021-01-15 | $0.27 | 24.2× | 28.2× |
| 2019-11-01 | $1.46 | $2.34 | 2021-01-15 | $0.28 | 23.4× | 27.3× |
| 2019-12-02 | $1.54 | $2.47 | 2021-01-15 | $0.27 | 24.1× | 28.2× |
| 2020-01-02 | $1.58 | $2.52 | 2022-01-21 | $0.49 | 49.6× | 174.3× |
| 2020-02-03 | $0.99 | $1.58 | 2022-01-21 | $0.26 | 96.1× | 328.2× |
| 2020-03-02 | $0.96 | $1.53 | 2022-01-21 | $0.25 | 98.9× | 337.1× |
| 2020-04-01 | $0.81 | $1.30 | 2022-01-21 | $0.24 | 105.1× | 355.8× |
| 2020-05-01 | $1.51 | $2.42 | 2022-01-21 | $0.54 | 44.6× | 156.3× |
| 2020-06-01 | $1.03 | $1.65 | 2022-01-21 | $0.37 | 67.6× | 231.2× |
| 2020-07-01 | $1.11 | $1.78 | 2022-01-21 | $0.35 | 71.4× | 245.1× |
| 2020-08-03 | $1.04 | $1.66 | 2022-01-21 | $0.31 | 80.6× | 275.7× |
| 2020-09-01 | $1.91 | $3.06 | 2022-01-21 | $0.57 | 41.3× | 147.5× |
| 2020-10-01 | $2.44 | $3.91 | 2022-01-21 | $0.76 | 30.0× | 110.4× |
| 2020-11-02 | $2.69 | $4.30 | 2022-01-21 | $0.89 | 25.1× | 93.6× |
| 2020-12-01 | $3.95 | $6.32 | 2022-01-21 | $1.28 | 15.9× | 63.9× |
Prices are split-adjusted.
Do the popular spike theories work on GME?
46 days up ≥15%, 2018-02-01 → 2026-09-15 · ±2 trading days · 2,000 random shifts each| Theory | Spikes caught | By chance | Lift | p | Verdict | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTD spike + 35 calendar days (T+35) | 20% | 13% | 1.52× | 0.186 | ⚪ No edge | Reg SHO 204 close-out window; the most popular theory |
| FTD spike + 35 trading days | 17% | 13% | 1.34× | 0.276 | ⚪ No edge | Common community variant |
| FTD spike + 13 trading days | 24% | 13% | 1.84× | 0.056 | 🟡 Weak signal | Reg SHO threshold-list trigger |
| FTD spike + 21 trading days (placebo) | 24% | 13% | 1.78× | 0.079 | 🟡 Weak signal | Placebo: no rule behind this lag |
| XRT (ETF) FTD spike + 35 calendar days | 11% | 12% | 0.90× | 0.613 | ⚪ No edge | ETF-basket variant |
| Monthly options expiry (OPEX) | 20% | 24% | 0.82× | 0.758 | ⚪ No edge | 3rd Friday each month |
| Quarterly OPEX (quad witching) | 9% | 8% | 1.14× | 0.501 | ⚪ No edge | Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec |
| Earnings releases | 17% | 9% | 1.97× | 0.061 | 🟡 Weak signal | SEC 8-K item 2.02 |
| Short-interest publication (settlement + ~9d) | 65% | 48% | 1.37× | 0.057 | 🟡 Weak signal | FINRA twice-monthly |
The p-value is the share of randomly shifted date sets that did as well or better. With 9 theories tested, one can look good by luck, so a single p≈0.05 is weak evidence.
Rhythms in trading volume
bars above the line beat red noise (95%)~63 trading days ≈ one quarter (the earnings cycle). Watch the dashed orange line at 35.
Fails-to-deliver, weekly
SEC CNS data through 2026-09-15 · √ scaleFTDs tend to jump after big price moves (buyers outrun delivery), not before them.
Biggest up-days and what they lined up with
| Date | Move | Close | Near… | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-13 | +57% | $7.85 | OPEX | off |
| 2021-01-22 | +51% | $16.25 | nothing scheduled | off |
| 2021-01-26 | +93% | $36.99 | nothing scheduled | off |
| 2021-01-27 | +135% | $86.88 | nothing scheduled | off |
| 2021-01-29 | +68% | $81.25 | nothing scheduled | off |
| 2021-02-24 | +104% | $22.93 | T+35 | off |
| 2021-03-25 | +53% | $45.94 | earnings | off |
| 2024-05-13 | +74% | $30.45 | earnings | off |
| 2024-05-14 | +60% | $48.75 | earnings, OPEX | off |
| 2024-06-06 | +47% | $46.55 | earnings | off |
📅 When to watch GME
Next big date
Oct 26 – 30
🔵 Warrant expiry run-in ($32 strike, 59M warrants)
starts in 21 days · One-time event
Sooner, but 🟡 weak
Oct 25 – 27
Short-interest report published
🟢 Best-backed: Big moves were clearly more common here than on random days🔵 One-time event: A dated corporate event; no history to test it against🟡 Weak signal: A bit better than chance, but not reliable⚪ No edge: Popular theory; did no better than random dates here
Next 30 days
Oct 25 – 27in 20 days
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Oct 26 – 30in 21 days
Warrant expiry run-in ($32 strike, 59M warrants)
Needs +30% to reach $32; warrant price implies ~21% odds of >$32. Above $32, exercise adds up to 59M new shares
🔵 One-time event
Show weaker and no-edge dates (24)
Oct 5 – 9
T+35 from the Sep 2 FTD spike
Popular close-out theory
⚪ No edge
Oct 14 – 16
Monthly options expiry
Options expiring can force hedging trades
⚪ No edge
Nov 9 – 11
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Nov 18 – 20
Monthly options expiry
Options expiring can force hedging trades
⚪ No edge
Nov 23 – 25
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Nov 25 – Dec 7
Volume-cycle peak (~126 trading days)
Repeating rhythm in trading volume
🟡 Weak signal
Dec 4 – 11
Earnings week (estimated date)
Big moves cluster around earnings releases
🟡 Weak signal
Dec 8 – 10
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Dec 16 – 18
Quad-witching options expiry
Options expiring can force hedging trades
⚪ No edge
Dec 23 – 25
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Jan 10 – 12
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Jan 13 – 15
Monthly options expiry
Options expiring can force hedging trades
⚪ No edge
Jan 25 – 27
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Feb 8 – 10
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Feb 17 – 19
Monthly options expiry
Options expiring can force hedging trades
⚪ No edge
Feb 23 – 25
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Mar 5 – 12
Earnings week (estimated date)
Big moves cluster around earnings releases
🟡 Weak signal
Mar 8 – 10
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Mar 17 – 19
Quad-witching options expiry
Options expiring can force hedging trades
⚪ No edge
Mar 23 – 25
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Apr 8 – 10
Short-interest report published
New short numbers hit the tape
🟡 Weak signal
Apr 14 – 16
Monthly options expiry
Options expiring can force hedging trades
⚪ No edge
May 20 – Jun 1
Volume-cycle peak (~126 trading days)
Repeating rhythm in trading volume
🟡 Weak signal
Nov 12 – 24
Volume-cycle peak (~126 trading days)
Repeating rhythm in trading volume
🟡 Weak signal
Read this first. These dates tell you when big moves have tended to happen, not which way. Even the best window misses most of the time. Educational only, not investment advice.
▸ Show past trade ideas (15 total · last 50 days) 0 resolved · 0.00 win · 0.00% avg
| Date | # | Ticker | Category | Action | Strike | Exp | Status | Entry | Now/Final | Return | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | 1 | RNA | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $7.84 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 0.51x cash · 20% short |
| Oct 2 | 2 | TRIP | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $14 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.51 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 1.18x cash · 30% short |
| Oct 2 | 3 | WOLF | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $58 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $35.23 | — | — | Squeeze score 78/100 · 1.46x cash · 54% short |
| Oct 1 | 1 | WOLF | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $50 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $31.14 | — | — | Squeeze score 82/100 · 1.29x cash · 54% short |
| Oct 1 | 2 | RNA | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.14 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 0.53x cash · 20% short |
| Oct 1 | 3 | TRIP | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.38 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 1.16x cash · 30% short |
| Sep 30 | 1 | WOLF | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $45 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $28.26 | — | — | Squeeze score 85/100 · 1.17x cash · 54% short |
| Sep 30 | 2 | TRIP | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.37 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 1.16x cash · 30% short |
| Sep 30 | 3 | RNA | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.28 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 0.54x cash · 20% short |
| Sep 29 | 1 | WOLF | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $45 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $28.25 | — | — | Squeeze score 85/100 · 1.17x cash · 54% short |
| Sep 29 | 2 | TRIP | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.35 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 1.16x cash · 30% short |
| Sep 29 | 3 | RNA | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.42 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 0.55x cash · 20% short |
| Sep 28 | 1 | WOLF | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $45 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $27.72 | — | — | Squeeze score 84/100 · 1.15x cash · 54% short |
| Sep 28 | 2 | TRIP | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.41 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 1.17x cash · 30% short |
| Sep 28 | 3 | RNA | SQUEEZE | Long LEAPS Call | $13 | Jan 21 | OPEN | $8.42 | — | — | Squeeze score 79/100 · 0.55x cash · 20% short |